WP 3 Short-term changes/precursors

Start date or starting event:


Lead contractor:






Analysis of observed short-term changes in various measurements, especially before the large earthquakes. Test and develop multidisciplinary short-term warning algorithms.



Analysis and deliverables of WP 3.1 and WP 3.2. Also related deliverables from several other workpackages of the project which provide results applicable for developing new warning algorithms, such as WP 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.5, 4.1, 5.5 and 6.2.

Methodology / work description:

Automatic warning procedures of different types are already operated by IMOR. An alert system based mainly on seismicity rate has been operated there for 9 years. New algorithms based on work in the PRENLAB projects have been in operation during the last year. They are based on besides the character of the seismicity also on microearthquake source information and also on wave path information. These warning procedures have shown to be significant, especially for activating and assisting the seismologists in evaluation of signs of possible impending hazards.


WP 3 is a forum for integration of all results of the PREPARED project which can help in developing and testing enhanced short-term warnings.  Besides the methods for warnings that will be especially studied in WP 3.1 and WP 3.2, many other workpackages can be expected to rend results which will be significant contribution to this work of deveolping and testing short-term warning methods. To mention examples there were hydrological changes and deformation rate changes before the first earthquake, that possibly may be related to it, which are analyzed  in other workpackages.


WP 3 will coordinate these activities in general and work on merging the multidisciplinary methods by analysis and  testings into operative warnings algorithms to be implemented into the Icelandic early warning system, and provides information which can help in developing similar warning algorithms into comparable warning systems elsewhere.


Deliverables including cost of deliverable as percentage of total cost of the proposed project:


Sessions at project meetings.

M1  Re  RE  0,1%


Sessions at project meetings.

M10  Re  RE  0,2%


Sessions at project meetings.

M20  Re  RE  0,1%


A report documenting and comparing multidisciplinary potential precursors of the June 2000 earthquakes.

M20  Re  PU  0,3%


Multidisciplinary warning algorithms will be implemented in the Early warning and information system.

M22  Re  PU  0,4%


An article in an international scientific journal will be submitted before the end of the project.

M24  Re  PU  0,4%



Milestones: Delivery of the above items at the date indicated.