WP 5 New hazard assessment/New methods for improving assessment of probable earthquake effects

Start date or starting event:

M0

Lead contractor:

IMOR

Participants:                                                IMOR, NVI, UIB, UPMC, UNIVTS-DST, UI

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Objectives:

On basis of the unique observations made in relation to the June 2000 earthquakes in the SISZ

as well as on basis of results of modelling the earthquake sources in time and space we aim towards a more detailed hazard assessment both as concerns the the location and severity of probable earthquake hazard. This improvement is very significant basis for general risk assessment.

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Methodology / work description:

Probable faults of future large earthquakes will be mapped in detail. Following the June 2000 earthquakes an area of 100 km length along the South Iceland seismic zone and the Reykjanes peninsula, and to some extent towards north,  was activated by triggered  activity of small earthquakes, reflecting fault movements on numerous faults, which either were not known before or not accurately known. Data and methodology is now available for accurate mapping of these fault at depth by microearthquakes information, to be compared with geological mapping of faults on the surface.

Digital strong motion records near the origin complemented with information on surface effects mapped by geologists and intensities on basis of questionnaires will improve the basis for  detailed expected hazard mapping.

Drastic changes in ground water and geothermal water systems in the area were observed, especially following the June 2000 earthquakes. These will be analyzed and compared to the detailed models of the earthquakes to understand better  the relation between such earthquakes and hydrological changes.

New intepretation of historical information: A  significant part of the workpackage is to compare the detailed information which we have about the June 2000 earthquakes with historical informaton and thus to try to confirm or modify earlier intepretations of the historical activity.

WP 5 will operate like a forum consisting of representants from WP 5.1-5.6 and WP 4.2  for integrating the results from the multidisciplinary work. Most of the workpackages of the project will produce results which can be applied here, not least the modelling  packages WP 6.1 and WP 6.2.

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Deliverables including cost of deliverable as percentage of total cost of the proposed project:

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Milestones: Delivery of the above items at the date indicated.