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The method

The forward modelling of stress fields is done by applying static dislocation theory to geodetic data and data obtained through the seismic moments from seismograms. It allows to calculate displacements, strain and stresses due to double-couple and extensional sources in layered elastic and inelastic earth structures. Besides the change in displacement during the event, the changes caused by the movement of plates is included (for further details see e.g. [41]).

Usually, for earthquake hazard estimation, the location, magnitude and statistically estimated recurrence period of former events is used. To improve this, here the rupture length and width as well as the tectonic setting and the crustal deformation rates are considered while calculating the space-time development of the stress field.

Margret Asgeirsdottir