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Short-term prediction and warning before the Hekla eruption starting on February 26, 2000

The eruption of the volcano Hekla, that started on February 26, 2000, was predicted. An hour before the eruption the National Civil Defence of Iceland was warned that an eruption in Hekla was probably imminent. 20-25 minutes before the start of the eruption it was declared to the Civil Defence that an eruption would certainly start within 15-20 minutes. The warnings were based on observed microearthquakes of magnitude 0-1 which started 80 minutes before the eruption and on observations of a volumetric strainmeter in a borehole 15 km from the volcano. This warning was very significant as the ash plume reached 10 km height in a few minutes, which also was predicted. It was also significant because tourists could possibly be hiking on the mountain, which in fact showed no signs of an impending eruption except for the last 80 minutes prior to its start. The successful prediction was based on good cooperation between scientists at IMOR.DG and at UICE.SI, both involved in the PRENLAB projects. The prediction is described in Subproject 1.


next up previous contents
Next: Short-term warning about size Up: Significant warnings and other Previous: Stress forecast before the
Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson
2001-01-08